Grain and oilseed market analysis should boil down to two questions: How much did farmers produce, and how much was consumed? This leaves a residual, which is the gap between total supply and total demand. The larger the residual (ending stocks) the more pressure on prices and vice versa. A fundamentals-driven analyst would look closely at the magnitude (big/little) and direction (up/down) of ending stocks and be able to discern price direction. Unfortunately, for farmers and consumers, macroeconomics and geopolitical aspects matter and often dominate the determination of prices.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2022 annually delivers a much-anticipated snapshot of the nation’s consumer grocery bill for the year past with predictions for the coming year. In early January, GrainsWest conducted a wide-ranging discussion on the implications of its latest findings with Sylvain Charlebois, lead author and Dalhousie professor in the faculties of management and agriculture.