When I became a market analyst 20 years ago, the world of agriculture seemed simpler. Today, I must admit to a deep frustration. My favoured method of analysis is so-called fundamentals. Calculating the difference between supply and demand is a matter of real-world mathematics. If this difference narrows, as measured by ending stocks, prices should respond favourably (bullish). If the surplus expands, prices come under pressure (bearish). A key component of fundamental analysis is having strong confidence in reliable data; the analysis is only as good as the underlying inputs. I have confidently relied on good data most of my career.

Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) has long raised concerns the deal may negatively impact Canadian farmers. The organization has cited warnings from the Canadian Competition Bureau and a University of Saskatchewan report that determined farmers will take a $770 million revenue loss should the deal go through without divestment from G3.

Canada rarely gets the respect it deserves as a steady and dependable crop exporter. Despite this solid record, in the 2024/25 marketing year, export prospects for raw unprocessed canola, wheat and durum are mixed.

While there’s no Tinder for business, Bunge and Viterra hope they’ve found the perfect match. The two companies announced their intent to merge in June 2023. Viterra brings more than 80 Canadian grain-handling centres to the blossoming relationship, along with sales to more than 70 nations. For its part, Bunge is the world’s largest processor of oilseeds, with 300 operations in 40 countries. Of course, with a celebrity wedding comes major scrutiny.

Today, AI and its corollary of machine learning have recently become buzzwords everywhere, including agriculture. The implementation of both requires data. It is readily available but, in the area of harvest data, sorely lacks veracity.

The market, defined here as the elements that converge to establish the price for any given commodity or service, has always been hard to discern. Its inscrutable nature promotes the dream of building a “black box” technology that removes human fallibility and emotion from the equation.

Grain and oilseed markets have not been boring in 2022/23. In the run-up to spring seeding, the war in Ukraine sparked substantial price increases. Simultaneously, inflation sprang from the embers of the COVID lockdowns and accompanying public policy. Already vulnerable populations faced increased concern about food shortages. Input costs soared due to logistical problems and supply concerns.

Grain and oilseed market analysis should boil down to two questions: How much did farmers produce, and how much was consumed? This leaves a residual, which is the gap between total supply and total demand. The larger the residual (ending stocks) the more pressure on prices and vice versa. A fundamentals-driven analyst would look closely at the magnitude (big/little) and direction (up/down) of ending stocks and be able to discern price direction. Unfortunately, for farmers and consumers, macroeconomics and geopolitical aspects matter and often dominate the determination of prices.

Export markets prefer CPSR because it is affordable, high-quality wheat with good protein strength and extensibility. Farmers like it because it yields well and is especially reliable in making grade.

While crop yields have reached previously unheard of levels, the coronavirus pandemic has elevated the importance of food security. For the farmers who ably grow the crops that feed the world, the central concern is income security. It is often the marketing of their products that is troublesome. Farmers increasingly need to be connected to find avenues to market the bounty. Access to information is a key component in making effective marketing decisions. A perennial critique of western Canadian agriculture is a significant information disequilibrium exists between farmers and line companies. How can the gap be bridged?