DURUM DONNYBROOK
BY GEOFF GEDDES • PHOTOS BY JAKE LEGUEE
Canada is a strong international competitor in durum marketing. Over the past five years, it has exported more than 23 million tonnes. The country’s approach is straightforward: Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. Market dominance is not easy to maintain given factors such as new Russian and Turkish production. As well, drought conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which produce almost half the world’s durum supply, decreased the quality of last year’s crop. As farmers plan for the next crop season, market competition, weather and pests loom large.
“Last year, Turkey entered the durum marketplace in a big way, which greatly impacted the prices we earned,” said Jake Leguee, SaskWheat board chair and durum farmer near Weyburn, SK. Turkey exported an estimated 1.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 crop year with an expectated increase to two million in 2024/25. “I suspect that won’t be the only domino to drop. Look at Russia and the countries that were part of the Soviet Union. They don’t have to start growing much durum to really screw up our marketing plans.” Russian durum exports grew 60 per cent in 2023/24 to 1.3 million tonnnes. It’s clear that rising supply combined with relatively fixed demand will drive prices down.
A DEMANDING JOB
“Ideally, we would uncover more demand for our durum,” said Leguee. “The demand for spring wheat is growing, and there’s a good market for durum, but it’s not expanding by leaps and bounds every year. If you add more suppliers to the market, there’s only one direction that revenue can go.”
For their part, market analysts paint a similar picture. “Based on what we’re seeing with global dynamics, I’m not bullish on durum at this stage,” said Jon Driedger, LeftField Commodity Research senior market analyst and vice-president. “On the plus side, we have pretty good early season movement of our durum to Europe. Unfortunately, that is occurring against a backdrop of large durum quantities available.”
Driedger sees the durum market as a bit flatter or softer than last season, with North African tenders dropping slightly and prices lower in the EU. “I’m also watching Turkey. They aren’t happy about durum prices right now, but if those values rise, Turkish supplies will likely be unlocked again, and that could put a lid on prices for the time being. That said, if prices pull back and cause Canadian growers to sell less durum, it could give prices a boost.”
For Canadian farmers, such a lid on prices that may result from Turkish durum supply could spell a limited upside in the global marketplace. “Prices are also drifting lower in some key markets, and Canadian values can’t move much higher in that environment,” said Driedger.
ARE YOU IN OR OUT?
Ahead of the 2025 season, he feels a bit of a pullback on seeded acres may be in the cards. “Farmers are not walking away from durum, but there could be some easing of production. We’ve also had a couple of really dry years in key growing areas in Canada. With so much uncertainty, any projections should be written with a lighter pencil for now.”
As Canadian durum farmers weigh their options on spring acreage, questions abound. “If China stops importing canola and those prices drop, our farmers may plant less canola, so where do those acres go?” said Driedger. “Does India put tariffs back on pulse prices? If so, does that impact those prices and make Canadian growers less likely to plant pulses, and what would that mean for durum?”
Then there is the elephant in the room and the question of who may get stomped. “U.S. tariffs would hit Canadian durum hard, which could reshape the durum outlook,” said Driedger. “As farmers think all this through, not knowing what they don’t know, they must be able to shift gears on the fly if needed. Not every market will be affected in the same way, and growers may keep more of their acres flexible than usual when drafting their seeding plans.”
As one such durum farmer, Leguee said he and others are looking closely at their margins as they ponder how to reduce costs. “We try to be upbeat, but we must deal with reality and the fact that durum margins have slipped. I wouldn’t say anyone is in panic mode, but we’re seeking better cost controls on all our crops.”
WHAT ABOUT THE DROUGHT?
Canadian farmers know Mother Nature has been less than generous with moisture recently. “As far as droughts go, there seems to be a bit more optimism in Western Canada thanks to a decent amount of winter precipitation,” said Leguee. “Our farm saw pretty good moisture between fall and winter, so our spring moisture should be at or near capacity, and that’s reason for hope.”
Memories of weather conditions last May and June remain fresh in his mind. Precipitation and temperature were good until the rain turned off and the heat turned on. With spring seeding soon to come, his prospects for durum production look solid. “We still have to grow the crop, and until we do, we won’t know,” said Leguee. “Are we in for another hot summer, or will we finally get a break? If July brings temperatures consistently above 29 C again, it won’t matter how much water we have in our soil profile; the crops just can’t take it.”
Durum also faces a significant pest threat that can lower yield. In southern Alberta, for example, wheat stem sawfly pressure has been on the rise in spring wheat. Though the parasite can also attack certain barley varieties, rye and triticale, it often hits durum the hardest.
Sawfly larva chew through the base of the stem, which causes the plant to fall to the ground. Field loss from this pest can reach 80 per cent. To combat the insect, many durum farmers in southern Alberta have turned to sawfly resistant durum, which has driven a yield increase in the region.
The decision on whether to add durum to your lineup, or subtract it, is also about trade-offs. “We switched from spring wheat to 100 per cent durum a few years ago,” said Dave Bishop, Alberta Grains Region 1 director who farms near Barons. “Durum is worth a bit more money than spring wheat and offers slightly better yield, but it also downgrades more easily, so there is a lot to consider.”
FOR QUALITY, COME TO CANADA
Canadian farmers may grapple with a myriad of factors that impact their durum plans, but one maxim shines through: There is no substitute for quality. “Countries like England, Morocco, Algeria and Italy love the quality of our durum,” said Bishop. He recently returned from a Cereals Canada New Crop Trade and Technical Mission to Morocco, a major importer of Canadian durum. “Those four countries can’t produce enough durum domestically to supply the demand, so they need us. Everywhere we went, we were asked about our yield, quality and weather conditions. Will we have a good crop next year? Is our supply level sustainable for the long term?”
Bishop also noted sustainability and the environment are increasingly relevant to buyers. “Customers want to know if we are wrecking the environment by what we’re doing and if we can maintain our quality through sustainability practices.”
With the population growing in all four of these top customer nations, demand continues to increase, and he doesn’t see this changing. And yet, there are potential clouds on the horizon. “The main risk for Canada is if other countries start producing a higher quality durum,” he said. “Keep in mind, though, that there is a limited area where durum can be grown.”
Still, the potential impact of new competitors such as Turkey and northern Mexico must not be taken lightly. The U.S. also produces good quality desert durum in arid regions of Arizona and southern California.
The Morocco mission, and others like it, underscore a critical element that can give Canada an edge in the global marketplace: the personal touch. “We find that it’s critical to have our farmers visit the customer,” said Bishop. “Buyers want to hear from the person who grows the product they buy.”
These missions also highlight the need for a team approach. Cereals Canada, the Canadian Grain Commission and Alberta Grains were all represented in Morocco. “The U.S. is out there promoting their product, and Canada must do the same,” said Bishop. “We tried doing it remotely during the pandemic, but there is no substitute for the one-on-one approach.”
Larger worldwide durum supply and prices that are edging lower may be the new normal, said Driedger. From a durum farmer’s perspective, though, there is a lot to like. “When I look at the options on my farm, durum still pencils in better than a lot of alternatives,” said Leguee. “Farmers tend to move in a certain direction all together, and I don’t see a big move in or out of durum. It is still a great crop to grow. It has been the anchor in our rotation for decades now, and I hope that continues for years to come.”
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