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GRAIN
SCIENCE
NEWS
Assessingannual acreage trends
“I just can’t look at the short-term
economics; I have to consider the
long-term impact of a rotation and
pay attention to best management
practices.”
–Bernie Klammer
TO A LARGE EXTENT, ECONOMICS
will dictate cropping plans for 2018, but
the need to generate profit is also tem-
pered by the employment of productive
agronomic practices. However, canola is
expected to remain the leading cash crop
in many Alberta farm rotations. With
prices perhaps in the $10.50 to $11.50
per bushel range, its return is not daz-
zling, but decent. Field peas are a good
rotational fit, but the pea-import penalty
imposed by India in late 2017 has taken
some of the wind out of pulse crop price
sails. And while wheat and barley aren’t
market leaders at the moment, there is fair
demand for certain classes and grades.
Cereals continue to play an important role
in rotation, and wheat remains Alberta’s
largest seeded acreage crop.
Farmers are also considering emerging
crops such as soybeans and hemp. As they
dabble and get a feel for best production
practices and yield potential from region
to region, the establishment of markets
will ultimately dictate their adoption.
With prices in most commodity markets
down in 2017, no one is expecting a major
shift in crop acres in 2018. According to
the most recent Alberta Agriculture and
Forestry (AF) statistics, Alberta farmers
harvested about 6.2 million acres of wheat
(total value $1.9 billion) in 2016, along
with about 2.6 million acres of barley (to-
tal value $362 million). Canola acres came
in at about 5.5 million (total value $2.8
billion), while peas and dry beans were
about 1.9 million acres combined (worth
$900 million).
“Generally, all commodity markets
heading into 2018 are fairly flat,” said AF
market analyst Neil Blue. There aren’t any
really bright price stars in the sky, but that
doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities,
said Blue. It is important for farmers to
knock on all market doors, he advised.
Know the quantity and quality of the crop
in the bin and shop around. “Aside from
the mainline elevator companies, there
are also often several buyers looking to fill
a specific or smaller market with a prod-
uct that meets certain specifications.”
Blue said the world market for low- to
mid-quality grains is somewhat depressed
due to an oversupply. However, he said
opportunities exist for high quality and
high protein. For example, higher-protein
Hard Red Spring Wheat is drawing a pre-
mium over last year’s price. Many Alberta
farmers took advantage of strong demand
for high-protein wheat in 2017, capturing
prices in the $8.50 range and higher. He
also noted there was fairly strong demand
in some regions for both Canada Prairie
Spring Wheat and Soft White Spring
Wheat to supply the ethanol market,
which may represent another opportunity.
While canola will likely remain the most
profitable crop for 2018, Blue said farmers
should examine various options. “If you can
find a market for Soft White Spring Wheat
that’s offering $5 a bushel, for example,
and with a 100-bushel yield (depending on
freight to market), that could be an attrac-
tive option, too,” he said.
On the barley side, malting barley
prices have been quite “sporadic,” he said.
While the large malting companies have
trended toward contracting most of their
production from established suppliers,
Blue said malting barley demand in the
craft brewing industry continues to grow,
and with it, crop marketing opportunities.
And while the yellow pea market in
particular took a hit last fall when India
announced non-tariff barriers against
imports, Blue believes the price news
isn’t all bad. “Pea prices haven’t recovered
from where they were two years ago, but
looking at the market through to the 2018
harvest, it appears prices will be in the
$6.50 to $7 range, which still might be
worth considering,” he said. India was a
major buyer, but not the only option. Chi-
na and the United States are among 100 or
so countries interested in Canadian pulse
crops. Check with buyers and brokers—it
may be worth shopping around.
In southern Alberta, seed grower
Brian Witdouck agrees that most farmers
turn to canola as their main cash crop.
A pedigree seed producer, he operates
Witdouck Farms at Iron Springs, north of
Lethbridge, growing a wide range of seed
crops, mostly under irrigation. These in-
clude canola, alfalfa, peas, lentils, wheat,
barley and some hemp.
“The interest in wheat and barley has
shrunk primarily because of the market,”
said Witdouck. “Other countries are pro-
ducing more, and in some cases cheaper,
so that has kept the price down.”
He said while farmers are buying cere-
als, and his own seed company enjoys a
strong market supplying wheat and barley
seed to the cattle feeding sector, cereals
are often an important tool in rotation.
“Even if markets aren’t great, wheat
and barley are still important to have in
Spring
2018
Grains
West
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ECONOMICSWILL DICTATE ALBERTA’SOVERALL CROPMIX IN2018