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doesn’t latch onto the facts and details—they just see that
people are upset about globalization and figure there must be
something wrong with it.”
Consequently, “it’s crucial that we communicate the benefits
of trade to all concerned,” said Innes, who also serves as
president of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA).
“The country has to understand the importance of agricultural
trade for our economy, and it starts with organizations like
CAFTA getting the message out.”
Although that’s a tall order, it appears Canada might be on
the right track.
“Minister [Chrystia] Freeland [Canada’s former trade minister
and current minister of foreign affairs] has been an ardent
promoter of world trade when many others have not,” said
Innes. “She understands that progressive trade means we can
have trade agreements that protect areas of importance to us,
like labour standards, the environment and the rule of law, yet
still deliver results for our internationally competitive exports like
agriculture.”
As industry and government work overtime to combat anti-
trade sentiments, many feel the stakes couldn’t be higher.
“International trade is crucial for Canadian agriculture and
agri-food,” said Citeau. “Eighty per cent of commercially
oriented farms and 90 per cent of all Canadian farms rely on
exports, as do half the jobs in crop production and a quarter of
the jobs in food manufacturing.”
On the bright side, in spite of the fear sparked by growing
protectionism, the situation might also be less dire than some
portray it to be.
“Experts agree that weakness in economic growth in recent
years, not isolationist trade policies, has been the primary
restraint on trade growth, accounting for up to three-quarters
of the slowdown,” said Citeau. Specifically, she pointed to
the economic downturn in China, a severe recession in Brazil,
falling prices for oil and other commodities, and exchange rate
volatility as the main causes of trade weakness in 2015.
Looking ahead, “the World Trade Organization recently
predicted a modest upturn for 2017, forecasting worldwide
trade to rise between 1.8 and 3.1 per cent in the coming year,”
said Citeau. “While this is a downward revision from its earlier
forecast of 3.6 per cent, it’s still better than the sluggish 1.6 per
cent growth of 2016.”
BEARING DOWN AND STEPPING UP
Even those who worry about the short-term future of trade see
reasons for hope.
“I don’t think Trump is against trade agreements. He just
opposes deals that he didn’t negotiate,” said Masswohl. “I still
think he intends to enter trade deals, but it will be ‘America first’
so that they get a better deal than anyone else.”
Still, Masswohl believes there are opportunities to be had
dealing with the Trump administration. “Republicans tend to
focus on competiveness and reducing regulatory burdens,” he
said. “I think there is a chance for co-operation between our
two countries on this.”
The experts disagree whether the current trade trend is a
bump in the road or the new normal for international relations.
On that subject, Bonnett favours the former.
“We’re concerned, but we’re not hitting the panic button,”
said Bonnett. “We have to do our homework and build the
necessary alliances to move ahead. There may be some
adjustments to trade agreements going forward. However, I
don’t think you will see strong opposition continue.”
Citing a recent survey on consumer impressions of trade,
Bonnett said the overall picture is fairly positive, despite the
visibility of anti-trade voices. “The majority of respondents
understood that trade creates jobs and offers choice for
consumers,” he said. “The survey results suggest a discrepancy
between the rhetoric and the core beliefs of the buying public.”
As the drama unfolds in the months to come, Bonnett has
booked a front-row seat. “It will be fascinating how this evolves
and if the Trump election rhetoric ratchets down in favour of a
more pragmatic approach,” he said. “We’ll have to wait and see.”
In spite of her concerns, Citeau is also hopeful. “As pointed
out by Dominic Barton, chair of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s
Advisory Council on Economic Growth, Canadian agriculture
and agri-food processing hold much potential in contributing
to Canada’s next big economic pitch,” said Citeau. “At a time
when governments are looking for ways to spur economic
growth, we need more trade, not less.”