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Spring
2017
grainswest.com29
BY Geoff Geddes • Illustrations BY istock photo
or hockey players, a no-trade clause
means job security. But for Canadian agriculture, the
tide of anti-trade sentiment that is rising around the
world is making insecurity the new normal.
As protectionist rhetoric and policies have ramped up in a
number of countries in recent months, many feel the trend has
driven global trade numbers down and endangered critical
trade deals. This has left some industry stakeholders worrying
about how Canadian agriculture, as a trade-dependent
economic sector in a trade-dependent country, will be affected.
“There is strong consensus among economists that
international trade has contributed to prosperity and job
creation around the world,” said Claire Citeau, executive
director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance. “Throughout
history, trade has proven to be one of the most powerful tools
available for economic growth, and that still holds true today.”
As Citeau pointed out, Canadian agricultural and agri-food
exports produce a GDP of $30 billion for agriculture and $65.5
billion for food manufacturing. In the process, these exports
generate almost a million Canadian jobs.
In light of the stakes, it’s little wonder that recent world events
have many on edge.
PLAYING THE TRUMP CARD
“Phenomena like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump
show the world moving away from liberalized trade,” said Brian
Innes, vice-president of government relations for the Canola
Council of Canada. “Our politics are influenced by a lot of
voices opposing trade. Right now, those voices are stronger
and have more impact than in the past, and that’s fuelling the
protectionist push.”
While Brexit and Trump may be products of that opposition,
they raise an important question: Where did the opposition
come from?
Through his work as president of the Canadian Federation
of Agriculture, Ron Bonnett feels he might have gleaned the
answer.
“We were in Geneva during the U.S. election for a meeting
with trade ambassadors and one of them expressed what many
of us were feeling,” said Bonnett.
That ambassador saw the election result as Trump tapping
into anger among the unemployed and underemployed as they
sought to assign blame for their situation. According to Bonnett,
those voters ignored the simple truth: you can’t stop progress.
“Modern economies are restructuring on a scale that we
haven’t seen since the Industrial Revolution,” he said. “This is
a whole new era of technology where we do things differently
than we ever did before, and right now we’re in a transition
period as people try to adapt.”
It’s a period where lucrative manual labour jobs are
disappearing and a lot of retraining is needed to keep up with
the changes.
“Many workers are having a hard time adapting,” said
Bonnett. “It’s easier to blame trade and globalization than to
acknowledge that things are more complex.”
TRADE WINDS COOLINGOFF
This hostility toward global trade has left some critical trade
deals hanging by a thread. For its part, Canadian agriculture
hopes our country isn’t hung out to dry when the smoke clears.
“The outlook for world commerce in 2017 is uncertain,” said
Citeau. “There are more questions than answers at this point.”
Many of those questions centred on the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), signed in 2016 by Canada and 11 other
countries. It would have created a free-trade area extending from
Chile to Japan, but Trump pulled the United States from the deal.
“What is Canada’s plan now that the deal as currently written
is not moving forward under the Trump administration?” said
Citeau. “How will Canada achieve the economic objectives of
the TPP, create a level playing field and gain competitive access
to fast-growing markets in the region such as Japan, Vietnam
and Malaysia, among others?”
Similar concerns were expressed by Innes, who sees the
demise of the TPP in terms of lost potential. “This deal was
incredibly positive for Canadian agriculture in general, and
canola and grain farmers in particular,” said Innes.
Because it involved so many countries, Innes viewed the TPP
as a rare opportunity to have agreements with multiple partners
on issues that a bilateral deal couldn’t address, such as labour,
the environment, and the health of plants, animals and humans.
Questions also exist concerning the Canada-European Union
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a free-
trade agreement that, if enacted, will eliminate 98 per cent of
the tariffs between Canada and the EU.
“The CETA offers tremendous potential for Canadian
agriculture and agri-food exporters,” said Citeau. “However,
with outstanding issues related to the timely approval of biotech
traits and meat-processing systems, the commercially viable
access that was promised for all exporters may not be fully
achieved by the time the agreement is implemented.”
F
Is the anti-trade trend a speed bump or a dead end for Canadian agriculture?