GrainsWest Fall 2020

Fall 2020 Grains West 8 THE FARMGATE The newEnvironment Canada radar station at Strathmore is one of 27 newor upgraded installations. FARMERS ARE ALWAYS AT THE mercy of the weather, but short- and long-term weather prediction technology is better than ever, with major improve- ments now in development. Advances include improved radar, better long-horizon computer models with which to create long-term forecasts and AI programs that produce immediate six-hour weather snapshots. This is an especially good thing for Alberta as the province’s geography makes forecasting a perennial challenge. “The mountains do create a lot of havoc in terms of where these storm systems are coming in,” said Dan Kulak, an Environment Canada and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) mete- orologist based in Edmonton. While air masses and storms that move across the coast of British Columbia may be well defined by the weather monitoring sys- tems in place there, these become poorly defined as they move across the Rockies, he added. Modern meteorology uses a range of methods to gather data about the weather and create forecasts. Radar stations pick up physical matter such as precipitation or debris from storms and weather events. Satellite images illustrate the movement of clouds and storms while ground stations measure rainfall and soil moisture. As it is, the current weather system net- work is set up to predominantly cover the major cities of the Prairies, said Kulak. “The quality of forecast models for the region is notably less than it is for other places in the world,” said Drew Lerner, senior meteorologist and founder of World Weather Inc., a U.S.-based weather analysis company that focuses on agricul- ture. “It’s very difficult to get computer forecast models to be accurate for more than, let’s say, five to seven days down the road; things change in the Prairies very quickly.” Besides the Rockies, many other factors feed into weather prediction on the Prairies, including Arctic air masses and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Lerner said. “If you go into Vancouver, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, what you’re going to find is the weather data quality is many times better than it is on the Prairies.” Canada could greatly improve its weather forecasting and analysis with the creation of a unified climate and weather data network, he added. Weather data collection and historical climate databases are now fragmented, with each province creating its own system of varying quality and accessibility. “Alberta’s got a terrific data set for agricul- tural weather, but you go to Saskatchewan and it’s very different. It’s not the same presentation, it’s not the same quality and the network is lacking,” said Lerner. “Among folks who use weather forecasts for various purposes, there’s a lot of frus- tration out there that they can’t get good quality outlook.” Positivepredictions New facilities and technology promise better weather forecasts Photo:CourtesyofEnvironmentCanada