Grainswest - Spring 2025

Spring 2025 grainswest.com 41 to drop. Look at Russia and the countries that were part of the Soviet Union. They don’t have to start growing much durum to really screw up our marketing plans.” Russian durum exports grew 60 per cent in 2023/24 to 1.3 million tonnnes. It’s clear that rising supply combined with relatively fixed demand will drive prices down. A DEMANDING JOB “Ideally, we would uncover more demand for our durum,” said Leguee. “The demand for spring wheat is growing, and there’s a good market for durum, but it’s not expanding by leaps and bounds every year. If you add more suppliers to the market, there’s only one direction that revenue can go.” For their part, market analysts paint a similar picture. “Based on what we’re seeing with global dynamics, I’m not bullish on durum at this stage,” said Jon Driedger, LeField Commodity Research senior market analyst and vice-president. “On the plus side, we have pretty good early season movement of our durum to Europe. Unfortunately, that is occurring against a backdrop of large durum quantities available.” Driedger sees the durum market as a bit flatter or soer than last season, with North African tenders dropping slightly and prices lower in the EU. “I’m also watching Turkey. They aren’t happy about durum prices right now, but if those values rise, Turkish supplies will likely be unlocked again, and that could put a lid on prices for the time being. That said, if prices pull back and cause Canadian growers to sell less durum, it could give prices a boost.” For Canadian farmers, such a lid on prices that may result from Turkish durum supply could spell a limited upside in the global marketplace. “Prices are also driing lower in some key markets, and Canadian values can’t move much higher in that environment,” said Driedger. ARE YOU IN OR OUT? Ahead of the 2025 season, he feels a bit of a pullback on seeded acres may be in the cards. “Farmers are not walking away from durum, but there could be some easing of production. We’ve also had a couple of really dry years in key growing areas in Canada. With so much uncertainty, any projections should be written with a lighter pencil for now.” As Canadian durum farmers weigh their options on spring acreage, questions abound. “If China stops importing canola and those prices drop, our farmers may plant less canola, so where do those acres go?” said Driedger. “Does India put tariffs back on pulse prices? If so, does that impact those prices and make Canadian growers less likely to plant pulses, and what would that mean for durum?” Then there is the elephant in the room and the question of who may get stomped. “U.S. tariffs would hit Canadian durum hard, which could reshape the durum outlook,” said Driedger. “As farmers think all this through, not knowing what they don’t know, they must be able to shi gears on the fly if needed. Not every market will be affected in the same way, and growers may keep more of their acres flexible than usual when draing their seeding plans.” As one such durum farmer, Leguee said he and others are looking closely at their margins as they ponder how to reduce costs. “We try to be upbeat, but we must deal with reality and the fact that durum margins have slipped. I wouldn’t say anyone is in panic mode, but we’re seeking better cost controls on all our crops.” WHAT ABOUT THE DROUGHT? Canadian farmers knowMother Nature has been less than generous with moisture recently. “As far as droughts go, there seems to be a bit more optimism in Western Canada thanks to a decent amount of winter precipitation,” said Leguee. “Our farm saw pretty good moisture between fall and winter, so our Alberta and Saskatchewan now produce almost half the world’s supply of durum. The Canadian crop must contend with emerging production by Russia and Turkey.