Grainswest - Fall 2025

Fall 2025 Grains West 22 Since 2000, global export revenues topped $100 billion annually from $27 billion, yet the market cap decreased from 4.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent. RBC noted money left on the table from Canada’s cozy relationship with the U.S. combined with aggressive expansion by other countries has resulted in $23 billion in lost revenue potential. The solution for all of this, RBC states, is threefold. Grow where Canada already enjoys market access, expand in the world’s best growth markets and maintain existing relationships through strengthened “food diplomacy.” With 15 free trade agreements already in place, Canada has access to about two-thirds of the global economy, but clearly the country could do better for even greater profit and market share. The new growth markets flagged in the report are primarily located in Southeast and South Asia, two regions that are predicted to explode in both agricultural growth and exports over the next 10 years. The report urges Canada to strengthen existing relationships with trusted buyers, namely China, Japan, Mexico and, still, America. The five keys to achieve these goals are: Innovation; Capital; Digital access; Export infrastructure; and, Global marketing. Food First strikes an expectant tone to wrap up and backs the notion Canada is well positioned to make a big splash in the next decade with a few focused shifts for its agricultural production and export strategies. “Moving from short- term reactionary tactics to strategic growth, Canada can use the U.S. tariff threats as a wake-up call to leverage agriculture and agri-food as a driving force for trade diversification while building Canadian self-sufficiency,” it states. BOOTS ON THE GROUND While Canada continues to temporarily walk on tariff-free eggshells under CUSMA, its U.S. trade relationship is fraught with peril. Michael Harvey is the executive director of the Canadian AgriFood Trade Alliance and said tensions continue to ratchet up. The only reprieve now is a glass ceiling for at least another year. “The political risk factor has gone up for Canadian ag exporters over the last few months, but the tariffs haven’t been realized in that Canadian agri- food exports, since they’re CUSMA compliant, aren’t currently paying any tariffs to get into the U.S. market.” His members’ biggest concern is across the board tariffs, plain and simple. The next biggest risk factor is the CUSMA renegotiation. Harvey is profoundly dissatisfied with how Prime Minister Mark Carney and The RBC Food First report suggests Canada expand exports in the markets where it already enjoys access and pursue expansion in the world’s growth markets. Critics of the federal government’s approach to trade negotiation cite Bill C-202’s protection of supply management of dairy and poultry products as a hindrance. Photo: Pixabay. FEATURE