Grainswest - Spring 2022

Spring 2022 grainswest.com 25 TANGLED WEB Just how interconnected is the global supply chain? Mussell said perhaps more than you ever thought, and offered this anecdote. In Spring 2020, when COVID- 19 ramped up, despite shutdowns, essential services carried on. In ethanol pro- duction, a chief byproduct is compressed C02. Well, travel declined sharply and fuel consumption plummeted as did ethanol production, as did compressed C02 production. By summer 2020, the American Meat Institute made urgent contact with members, asking how much compressed C02 they required to keep their meat inventory cool, because in-patient levels at hospitals were sharply increas- ing and the heath care sector requested compressed C02 for medical purposes. “Who on earth would think a pandemic has a direct effect of people driving less … all the way through to compressed C02 and having to ration it between meat processors relative to hospitals. It’s crazy.” Trent Whiting, the parent seed co-ordinator for Western Canada with SeCan, said for certain seed varieties, orders should have been placed yesterday. “There’s enough seed to go around, but can you get it to where you need to get it and get it cost effectively? That’s the real question. If you know you need [seed], I’d get it booked sooner rather than later.” He said the seed supply in Alberta is OK, Saskatchewan is a total disaster and Manitoba is only fair. Not surprisingly, Whiting observed the Palliser Triangle was the hardest hit area of the Prairies this past year and, given the immense durum production in this region, demand for the cereal has gone through the roof. “From a seed grower perspective, it’s hard not to sell durum grain at $22 or $25 per bushel,” he said. Sales could fetch between $25 to $30/bu or even higher, he added. And while durum is expensive, at least it’s available. Yellow peas are in extremely short supply and this year no workaround exists if you’re on the hunt. “If you don’t have it in your bin, I don’t know if you’d go out and replace it. There’s really no other production. It’s not like it’s produced somewhere else. Hopefully you got a little bit carried over, but you may actually have to go to another crop type.” With barley and spring wheat, Whiting is not concerned. He said the real issue may be moving seed to Saskatchewan and Manitoba where farmers are used to paying less for it. Meanwhile, Alberta farmers are used to higher prices due to their proximity to Feedlot Alley in the south and port access to the West Coast. He said that addition is an extra $2 to $2.50, including freight, for Saskatchewan and Manitoba buyers. As far as availability of new varieties are concerned, Whiting encourages farmers to tamp down their expectations. Newer varieties simply could not propagate at any meaningful levels last year and, as a result, breeder seed is extremely tight, down about 50 per cent across the Prairies. Many new varieties on farmers’ wish lists may not be available for at least one more year, if not more. However, he injects a dose of reality to the situation and reminds farmers that there is nothing wrong with saved seed. “If you want to change a variety, be honest with yourself. New isn’t always best. Be sure you’re making the right decision.” Last, Whiting reminds farmers that spending $25 for an official lab test is money well spent. Official germination rates and thousand kernel weight, are important factors when it comes to determining seeding rates. So, while the pandemic has laid bare particular fragilities of the global supply chain, Canadian agriculture has overall escaped without too many scars. Uncertainty persists, but it does appear agriculture is through the worst of it—for now. The issue of trucker vaccine mandates continues and, after weeks of protests in Ottawa and other parts of Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act to quell demonstrations. To date, the mandates remain in place for cross-border truckers. This adds to issues in the Canadian transportation sector that already had a scarcity of drivers for three-plus years. When Mussell surveys the world’s agriculture scene, he believes many countries will conduct reviews of vital supply chains. It wouldn’t surprise him if a number of nations develop efficiencies and also create new contingency plans, given what many have experienced over the last two years. For the moment, he can’t stop thinking about how his uncle sagely likened the agricultural landscape to the rope in a game of tug of war. “Everybody gets a chance to tug it once in a while, but most are just hanging on. We’re in a period where there’s a great deal of volatility and risk. It’s probably a good time to hang on.”